Archive for the 'Financials' Category

Current Stocks

May 22, 2007

Recently bought:

– Mindray (MR)

Increased positions: 

– Cogent Systems, Inc (COGT)

Already holding:

– Intel (INTC)
– AMD (AMD)
– Cogent Systems, Inc (COGT)
– Nintendo (NTDOY)
– Waste Management (WMI)
– First Data Corp (FDC)

Thoughts on each:

INTC and AMD are currently in bounds by a lawsuit and AMD is losing market shares. This seems to be a moment of conflict. In time of war and despare the underdogs find a way to come up on top. So far INTC is holding the grounds, but I smelled new advancements that have come with AMD’s Puma Chip. I am also looking forward to INTC Maxwifi technology. All in all, my decisions have been to buy them both, as the lawsuit seems to be an anchor of undecisiveness and a blimish on INTC, but I do not believe this will slow them down for long. One thing large corperations have over smaller corperations is resilience. They have experience from falling multiple times but have always found a way to rise up again. I do not see INTC fading away any time in the future without an unexpected twist of depth. AMD and INTC will continue to rival one another and in-essence, support each other from trailing growth of smaller companies though good pratice of competative market tactcis. My goal is long-term. I see AMD and INTC rising to above 30 by end of year.

NTDOY was one told to me that I should not buy their stock because I like them. I do like them. But I bought their stock for one reason…. “the Wiii’s are still sold out!” As Nintendo is still rushing out more Wii from the production line, it is still not enough to satisfy the growth and demand for Wii consoles. Many are probably like myself, sleeping, waiting for the day it becomes “easy” to get one. This leads me to believe that there is an unpresidented and unrealized expectation of demand. This can be kept in many aspects. 1.) the stock is sold out. 2.) analysis can only predict by what has been sold! 3.) It is was not a decision to release “less” like Nintendo competetor Sony. Because Nintendo is making a good effort to try and satisfy demands and still failing, this gives insight into an unrealized value for the company. I see Nintendo finishing strong at a value of 45 before this demand is met.

WMI is an energy stock. At some point I had thought about it. The world generates a TON of trash day to day. Where does it all go? I see WMI as the leader in Waste management and I also seem them gaining much stronger markets as the months go by. I bought them for many reasons, but of the strongest reason is because they have realestate as well as recycling plans. To put it in an bad manner, trash management is a matter of how much you can tuck away. Creating new recycling facitities and compacting trash beyond simple compression is a greater step towards the energy market needs.

FDC holds more than 52% of north america’s electronic transactions. Second place is Bank of American with a small 18%. This is quite a lot! I was lucky on this stock, I picked it in Janurary due to it’s market share and quickly it was bought out by KKR for restructing. My hope is that this restructuring will take 1.5 years and the company is re-openned to the public. Currently I am still holding a small share of the company, unwilling to give it up to KKR.

MR is a medical equipment manufacturing company based in China. With the recent increase in the china markets, I could not help but jump in on at least one. Another mark for my decision to buy this company is also their current expansion in China. They are building new building in Shenzhen China right next to a few other globally recongized company buildings like Fangda. This stock is definitly much more of a gamble, but I have been looking for a medical stock to jump on for a while now. I see the medical world advancing a few folds in the near future. I hope that there will be a technology spur in this coming year.

Stocks of Interest:

GE – genernal electric – they have a research moment towards hydrogen fuel cells. As a larger company they are stable and have much better funding. Additionally their interconnections (if not held up by beaucracy) will be a bonus for realizing new potential techniques to stablize the conduction chamber.

UTX – united technology corp – as the standing company of multiple waste and power management solutions they hold a mighty share in both market and technology in the energy sector, or so my thoughts tell me. But more research needs to be done before i commit to this company. Perhaps I am only looking at it due to it’s size and stability. When i first looked it was at 64.08  now it is at 68.92. Recent markets have been doing well, maybe it is only a rise due to economic strength.

GOOG – Google is on the move again. Sadly it’s value is too high for me to jump in. My recent experience has been very limiting and with a 20-60 dollar value of observation there are curtian rules that can be applied, but for a 470 dollar stock! The rules are very different.

Buy-out’s and Economic analogy to a small War

April 25, 2007

This is the first of many new posts I hope to make. Somewhat just capturing the cognition I get at any one moment about financial information that might be interesting or a possible good theory in today’s world. So lets get started!

One thing that I’ve noticed in the economy is the interesting market shift whenever there is a buy-out. When one company acquires another company, it is a dramatic move. Like most societies, people will follow great leaders. Thus when a larger company, a recognized leader, buy-out another business it is a big deal. Many investors think to themselves “They must know something I don’t! That’s a large investment! If they are willing to risk several hundreds of thousands to several million, what’s my little piece of the pie?” Thus there is a heighten term of which the price of that stock will grow.

Being said, of course these terminologies are not bound to just stocks. It’s also similar to every day business. If someone’s willing to invest a lot into someone, you have a general feeling that they are serious and they will not be as likely to fail.

Another corperate buy-out strategy, I’ve noticed, is when a company starts buying out multiple smaller companies. They lash out and buy up multiple smaller firms and group them together, sort their technology, make it their own, and perform integration over several aspects of a single field or possible bringing together multiple fields into an all-in-one solution.

One thing I always love to compare financial information with is a small regional war. Each region (or in the market they say Sector) is competing over resources. Some might think of this as “cash” or “profits” but that is a misconception. Specifically the resources these small nations (companies) are battling over are terrorial stakes of land, which are not quantized by their worth in gold, but rather their quality as a reusable and renewable resource (specifically Customers!)

As few nations fight over the available “customers” they are competeing to win the trust and loyality of a reoccuring resource from quarter to quarter. This provides one thing that is the majority of what the world is looking for “stability”. People do not desire the unknown, they fear it. When things are predictable, they are confortable. Same rules apply in their decisions for their own futures, of course some are less conservative and also even fewer make their metals while doing it.

Thus, how can you find a buy-out rush?

This is a power struggle over a specific sector of the market. As one competer becomes more powerful and more dangerous as a threat to the other competors, fear will start to cause a reaction. When there is such fear there are multiple war stratigies that really stand out. Of which are the explained above but in different terms:

1.) Acquire more resources to ensure a stronger defensive as well as arm yourself with a possible retaliation. (Which mimics buying out smaller companies to gain leverage).

2.) Conquer the surrounding nations and acquire their power and make it your own. Taking their Society, their methodologies, their technology, and their resources to help stage a later step in the war.

3.) (Not noted above, but is easily recognized) Collaborate with other forces to help combat a common enemy.

Thus there are some interesting warning signs that might bring about the ability to perform a “buy-out” or collaboration of resources.

1.) A health army capable of showing presense or power. Too small of an army will be ignored and more lightly be the surrounding nation that gets assembled.

2.) A super power, but not overpowered. When there is a threat over the horizon, things change, people change. Although if there is a threat that is overpowering, such that hope is crushed and passions for “freedom” (or whatever) are passified, then there this will not happen.

3.) Fear and competition. This is a very critical aspect. Say we have the same situtaion as the above two poitns #1 and #2, but there is plenty of land and resources to go around… Then there would be no reason to fight just yet. The first step for each nation would be to acquire as much land as possible before preparing for a confrontation. Thus fear and competition play a major role as the catalysis.